Evan Shapiro Unveils the Q4 Truths for 索尼, 任天堂, 迪斯尼, Meta, 和 更多的
Major media 和 entertainment companies’ quarterly earnings calls ought to pull back the curtain on what’s really happening in the industry, but they routinely bury unflattering numbers in expert spin, 和 the press on h和 rarely asks questions tough enough to draw out the real story.
随着第四季度财报电话会议为2023年划上句号，M&E industry cartographer Evan Shapiro pulls no punches in this real-time response for his 流媒体连接2024 开幕式主题, digging deep into the data to hold the spin doctors accountable, giving 流媒体 Connect attendees an unvarnished view of the industry that they won’t get anyw在这里 else.
Read Part Three of our highlights from his keynote presentation below, 和 点击这里 观看完整的主题视频.
如果你错过了，请阅读 第一部分 和 第二部分 这是我们从夏皮罗的演讲中摘录的精华.
Why 索尼 should spin off its non-游戏机 electronics division
夏皮罗说他喜欢追踪 索尼 因为它的估值从来不会波动太大. However, he believes that they should spin off their non-游戏机 electronics division, as it is holding them down too much.
“ir net income is down over 9% because their electronics division is down 3%,他说. “是的, film 和 television didn't have as good a year last year as it should have, 但第四季度表现非常好. The problem is their old-school electronics business 和 their addiction to it. 我认为索尼将进入购买游戏. T在这里's major competition with Microsoft that they need to keep up with, 和 t在这里 are a ton of companies out in the ecosystem in the gaming sp在这里 that 索尼 might acquire in 2024. I think they're ripe for a major move because now more than ever with the Activision acquisition, 他们感到了威胁.”
Why EA is facing headwinds 和 a flattening net income
夏皮罗指出 EA, 就像许多小型游戏公司一样, will face many headwinds in the coming years from the major players in the gaming ecosystem.
“EA had a really good fourth quarter 和 then a kind of a meh year,他说. “他们的在线游戏业务发展得相当不错, but their full game business is not really going to make it long term. This business has been declining year-on-year for the last couple of years. 他们的收入增加了, but their net income is basically flat because these games cost so much 和 take so long to develop. It's hard to cut overhead in order to get to a net income number that you like. 也就是说，它们的市值上涨了27%.”
为什么是《百家乐软件》. 这部电影给了任天堂一个非周期性的提振
夏皮罗观察到 任天堂 有一个伟大的2023年，主要是由1美元.5 billion worldwide box office gross of the Mario Bros. 电影. He said it was “the greatest marketing tool their game platforms ever had, 无论是在游戏中还是在主机上, 和 so they sold more consoles 和 games last year than they anticipated 和 outperformed all their projections.“然而, this was essentially a fluke because 2023 was an “off-cycle” year for them, 因为他们没有发布新的主机.
“I don't think you can count on that to happen every time out of the box,他说. “I also don't think you can necessarily affect the strategy that their CEO spoke of during their earnings call, 哪个是每户销售多台主机. I think this is a specialized product that takes about 10% of the overall gaming ecosystem, 这不是很多吗, 我认为2022年真的很糟糕, 2023 that they have had is just one bad gaming cycle or one bad 电影 launch away from happening, which is why I think 任天堂 is also a buyer in the gaming ecosystem in 2024 和 2025, 和 I think t在这里's a lot of small gaming companies that are ripe for acquisition.”
为什么Roblox是收购的理想选择
Shapiro suggested that one company 任天堂 should consider acquiring is Roblox. “y are a massive platform for people under 25 worldwide, 但他们从来没有盈利过, 和 they're losing more money now than they have in the past,他说. “我一度认为 迪斯尼 应该买下它们. 迪士尼转而投资了Epic和 Fortnite, which I thought was a pretty smart move relative to the whole because they only had to spend $1.50亿美元，而不是200亿或300亿美元购买Roblox. 但我不认为Roblox，在一个生态系统中 腾讯 微软、索尼和任天堂, can survive as a st和alone business while they're losing billions of dollars year-on-year. 这有很大的好处, 最明显的是广告, but I also think 任天堂's IP in this ecosystem would be amazing.”
Additionally, he noted that Roblox cannot be played on Switch at the moment. “Imagine the increase in sales of Switches if you could,他说. So, I do think t在这里's a major opportunity 在这里, either for 索尼 or for 任天堂. 我希望他们中有人能很快拿到它. Roblox actually had a pretty good year relative to its own historical record, 它的市值也在上升.”
迪斯尼公司的削减比其他公司更有成效&E球员
夏皮罗指出 迪斯尼的 large 和 painful cuts have paid off more for them than the big cutbacks did for other major M&E球员. “你可以在这里看到, 不像媒体末日中的其他玩家, 迪斯尼 has been able to turn those cuts into massive operating income growth in some segments, 尤其是在体育和直接面向消费者的流媒体领域,他说. 再加上Epic $1.50亿的投资和Spulu, 他们宣布的体育捆绑包, 和 it feels like Bob Iger may be getting a h和le on the navigation system of this new 迪斯尼. 我们将会看到, it will be a really interesting year for them across the board 和 one of the most notable generators of their income."
However, an area of trouble can be seen for 迪斯尼 in its film franchises. “ 奇迹 特许经营遇到了真正的麻烦，就像 星球大战 franchise, except if you look at their television shows,他说. “I don't think t在这里 was one commercial for the 奇迹 franchise during the Super Bowl, 这是我十年来第一次记事. So, 艾格似乎对事情有了更好的把握, but it still remains to be seen whether his cut-to-grow strategy is going to work long-term. That said, 迪斯尼's market cap is up 23% just this year.”
Meta会大幅反弹
夏皮罗称为 Meta “同比冠军”.” While Meta had a terrible 2022 和 it is not difficult to look good in comparison to that, he noted that they were able to make cuts without cutting to the core of their revenue generation.
One area of potential risk for Meta is that it is a “99% ad business,他说. So, 在下一次广告低迷时期, 梅塔的日子会很不好过, 就像上次一样. This business is not yet protected as much as they like to talk about [with] 元宇宙 和 AI. But they are at an all-time high market valuation, up 175% year-on-year.”
Why 提前 didn’t impress Wall Street despite improving numbers
尽管 提前 dramatically upped revenues 和 net income in Q4 (due to a combination of the digital ad economy coming back 和 also making cuts), 华尔街对此并不热衷.
“That's because the revenues for the full year are not up 在这里,他说. “This is going to be a very tough business against the big tech death stars for any digital platform, 包括 TikTok, by the way, which doesn't do earnings reports the way that we do. So this stock has been punished just year to date, down 30%.”
Why 交易台 reflects the true state of the healthy ad economy
夏皮罗发现 交易台 is one of the best examples of improvement in the ad economy.
他说:“他们现在绝对处于火热状态。. “Net income in the fourth quarter is up 37%, 和 revenue is up 23%. This company invested heavily in the evolution of advanced audiences 和 advertising, 这真的给他们带来了回报. 他们还在零售媒体上投入巨资, so the Trade Desk is st和ing everyw在这里 the ball is going. They are heavily playing in the retail ad economy in a way that few companies outside of 亚马逊 和 沃尔玛 are really cutting the course of how the new economy is going to be played. They're at the center of more deals than I think a lot of people are necessarily comfortable with, 但另一方面, t在这里's not necessarily that much choice out t在这里 with regard to the power of this platform. 他们度过了美好的2023年, 和 they're going to have an amazing 2024 because they are w在这里 the ad economy is going.”
Watch full sessions from the February 流媒体 Connect 在这里.
We'll be back in person for 纽约流媒体 on May 20-22, 2024, with Evan Shapiro hosting 和 presenting his closing keynote, "Next Is Now: The State Of The 流媒体 Industry." 点击这里 查看完整的程序并注册.
所有信息图表由 ESHAP.
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